However, I do have two caveats to the layout above: a) that no sudden surprises (e.g. being arrested in an airport restroom for misdemeanor foot tapping) turn up for either candidate between now and Election Day, and; b) as in 2004, everything rests on Ohio.
I’m also calling for the GOP to get its proverbial clock cleaned in the congressional races, giving Democrats a working majority in both the House and Senate.
Of course, we’ll see how everything shakes out in a few weeks, but I’m going on the record now: McCain will beat Obama 274-264.
If I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to celebrate.