Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Down To Dayton (And Other Projections)

Now that the DNC and RNC conventions are now blissfully over, I've gone back to the electoral college map to adjust for last week's Palin-related bounce, and its impact on the states.

Last time I did this, I projected a narrow, 10-point margin of victory for McCain 274-264.

But now, after taking into account the GOP bounce gradually easing off, I'm leaning back toward an election year toss-up which again teeters on Ohio where economic issues are king.

So here it is: after all other states are locked in for McCain or Obama, whichever candidate scores Ohio, scores the big prize.

And barring an October Surprise, fatal gaffe, or dead hooker found in someone's trunk, that's pretty much how it's going to play out over the next eight weeks.

But aside from all this, just for fun let's say my original prediction is right, and McCain wins election.

What can we expect his administration to resemble politically?

My guess is that McCain would be a decent president whose duration in office would be questionable—even McCain's supporters ponder the odds of him being able to serve two terms--and his legacy one of political frustration.

Let's be serious, shall we?

McCain and Palin can sell the fairy tale of them gliding into Washington on a golden chariot of reform to give it a kick in the pants, expecting Democrats and Republicans to snap into a newly responsible bunch who suddenly abhor earmarks, as much as they want.

But both reality and history say that little will change in how the Federal government does business.

Pigs will be pigs.

But ultimately, after his time at bat is finished, I'll wager a Cliff Notes version of McCain's presidency (if it happens) would describe him as a glorified chair-warmer whose greatest achievements (in the eyes of his party) will be replacing Supreme Court Justices John Paul Stevens, and Ruth Bader Ginsberg when they inevitably retire.

Quite frankly, I don't think McCain will have time to do much else.

A single term goes by awfully quickly, and McCain's successors will be jockeying positions for his job almost immediately after he leaves his inaugural ball.

No comments: