The greatest risk (or folly) about making political forecasts is that they are solely dependent on what is happening today – not to mention subject to virtually anything that pops up tomorrow throwing one’s election year strategy into a thresher – such as, say, a surprise indictment, or the press finding out about that dead hooker in Barbados last spring.
Still, although my own predictions about which presidential candidate will win this cycle has evolved with time and polling trends, I am beginning to feel that John McCain’s presidential goals may be on a permanent slide.
The reason why is because I’m seeing today in Team McCain mistakes similar to those made by George H.W. Bush in 1992 when running against Bill Clinton – that is, engaging in petty, spitball-like attacks versus offering voters actual solutions for what the nation is going through, which today--as it did 16 years ago--is leaning heavily on the economy.
Further, like Bush The First, McCain is doing a poor job of learning from his mistakes, and repeatedly making kneejerk decisions (e.g. Georgia, Palin, obstructing the bailout plan) which are backfiring on him.
And as what could be argued as a result, McCain’s polling numbers—both nationally and in key states—are dropping steadily, which poses the natural question of what the hell McCain’s gonna pull out of his ass this time to hog the election spotlight.
My guess is nothing. Well, either that or a handful of pocket lint.
McCain has already played (and re-played) his trump cards, and unless that proverbial shot of a dead hooker in Obama’s bed surfaces (and awfully soon), I think his candidacy will begin to flatline.