Monday, October 27, 2008

Sanity Check

Although some Obama backers (e.g. Rachel Maddow) are bemoaning the worst at T-minus eight days to the election, I saw some stats today that encouraged me regarding his final chances.

In 2004, at this same time during that election, Real Clear Politics reports that Bush was leading Kerry by 1.5% nationally. And although I don’t put much stock in such polling, that figure is very close to the final margin of victory Bush had when the dust settled (including Nader voters).

Fast forward to today: RCP projects Obama having a 9.3% advantage over McCain (including consideration for Third Party voters).

Swing state polling is also holding for Obama in PA, OH, VA, CO, IA, MI, and NM while projections in MO, FL, and NC are tightening down the stretch. Either way, the numbers are favoring Obama. So my advice to chronic Debbie Downers like Dr. Maddow is to relax.

Also, here’s another Election Day tip: ignore all exit polling data no matter which way it leans.

Remember 2004 again? When exit numbers showed Kerry with a robust lead over Bush around 1PM? The same figures that cast a pall over White House staffers who believed their boss would soon be packing for Crawford?

Well, do yourself a favor this year and dismiss anything you hear next Tuesday afternoon regarding who is leading in what state.

We likely won’t have a clear winner until midnight anyhow so chill.

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